A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
